Scientific Theory Driven Models vs. Scientific Data Driven Reality.

Discussion in 'Other Discussion' started by wrenchinator, Apr 26, 2020.

  1. wrenchinator

    wrenchinator Commander

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    Below is an interesting press conference with a couple ER physicians who happen to run 7 clinics. They present some data that is current and represent people who are, in real time, dealing with this virus. Skip to the 1:00:00 if you just want a quick conclusion, watch the whole thing if you want to comment please. Please attempt to stay as Apolitical as they do. I did not come up with the bombastic title and I am sure they didn't either. There is one unusual edit when be begins to talk about fear and setting up the press conference.



    I am inclined to agree with these doctors in every respect, based on the actual data they have and what I am observing so far. While not 20/20 hindsight, this is not cataract level modeling either. I have been asked privately what does my being "wrong" look like once we can clearly see back. I think more like these men in that initially things were done quite well, but as data comes in, the models appear to be quite a bit off. But no one is wrong if we continue to use the data and real science we are gathering and treat this at the threat level it deserves.

    That is, unless something else is going on.
     
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  2. Needleship

    Needleship Master of Custom Terrain

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    Damn, I really procrustinate too much. ;)
    1 HOUR?! Who's gonna watch all this? And even no time stamps or short summary!!1


    And nobody will read such a lenghty answer, either....


    -------------------------------------------------

    - Liked the interview.
    Until they drifted in conspiracy.
    And then into warning about a civil war.
    (...Other guy didn't seem to be so comfortable with his boss, there...)

    Press is asking good questions, and the MDs present their case.

    Thought that they tripped up over the numbers at first, in the 5 minutes at start, but it seems to be grounded.
    At least they use all the good words at the right places :)
    And it meshes with what I learned about biology, too.


    IHMO the main guy smirks quite a bit too much - Citing is background even more... Once is enough. Thrice or more is inviting fallacy by citing authority, not data.
    Even if he thinks that sheltering is ridiculous now, and that he knows it alll better, it's still a health issue.
    Just because people die 'with flu' all the years, that doesn't diminish their deaths now.

    And the even bigger smile during the conspiracy excourse makes it even worse. (He hasn't data on that, just feels, so I call it such)
    People have it much easier to ignore his message, simply by looks.
    But that is probably not his intention...?

    (Same as the video style. Made up like clickbait, and the intro cuts are dramatic. Presented by 'Blue Collar Logic'- As if there are 'better logics than other'.)




    ... But the meeting as a whole seems to be well made.
    There are a lot of journalists in the back, not just the one at the start, and they all did their homework, too.


    If the data is that clear, then - whew- , and it would probably not take too long for 'the powers that be' to lift restrictions.
    I'm guessing that there is already one politician that would be very happy..!
    (And because of that, all that conspiracy government talk even makes less sense.)

    --
    Just to say that 'oh, they are stuck in their ivory tower' is a very bit simplistic, IHMO, and not helping.
    - Those 'ivory tower' guys really dream of being the people to call this all off, from their high window. - That would be their moment.
    (If said politician lets them do it, and doesn't want to do it himself, that is.)

    And... if it would be 'just the flu'- There are still some unknowns.
    Healthy, young doctors died by that. I guess, those didn't had other sickness- They probably would have known?



    With more data in, and hospitals not overwhelmed, in my city the restrictions are dialed back.
    Better it is 'just' like this. Better to possibly freak out over a "probably-flu-like" than to ignore the worse ones.
    But even the flu can overwhelm hospitals, as they said. And people die, that in other cases would have lived.

    And yes, testing is key. The faster (reliable) results, the better, Else you never know.
    US is still lagging in tests. I guess, that is all what holds people back.


    Very much disagree about the 'do not wear masks so that your immune system gits gud'.
    - You wear masks not for yourself, but not to sneeze at your vulnerable grandpa.
    So you use that when you are near them, or in a public space where you are close to such people.
    Especially if you feel sick, with a not-yet fully understood illness around.


    --


    Title of this thread seems a bit strange, IHMO.
    What whe see as 'reality' is based on models. Science helps to get more accurate ones, by including ever more data generated by sound method.
    Without models you can't use all that data, because you can't interpret it.
    It would be all just anecdotes fighting with each other.
    Like, "I have talked to ER doctors all over..."

    Post seems to be a bit more like, as if it would be titled:
    "Good public interview by MDs, in favor of easing US lockdown."

    And I don't think that there is any malice involved, either. And REALLY not about controlling people. No basis on data, as they would say.
    - The economy gets wrecked. Nobody gains here.

    Just a lot of confused humans, in their first pandemic event.
    ... But now we might be prepared when the Zombie Virus hits? ;)

    Ohh... that's their plan...


    - Thanks for the vid.
    Social media (and Youtube) slant information towards what you already saw (since if you keep you watching, you watch ads, generating revenue) - - making us all feel and think ever more so extreme, in what direction ever.
    (... buying ammo...?)

    I still will be wearing my mask tomorrow in the supermarket. Makes everybody feel better. Fighting an unseen danger. It's polite.
    ...And I actually do have the flu. :)
     
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  3. wrenchinator

    wrenchinator Commander

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    “When you tear out a man's tongue, you are not proving him a liar, you're only telling the world that you fear what he might say.”

    ― George R.R. Martin, A Clash of Kings
     
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  4. Fractalite

    Fractalite Rear Admiral

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    This thread is such a steaming pile of dumb. LOL! Good ole wrenchy. Your quote isn't especially sound, it breaths more, "If it wasn't dumb enough, how can I make it dumber?"

    Is your cuddly little playmate BB around...? Perhaps other oh-so-wonderfully brilliant minds like @Bigfeet ? Are we gonna get some "commies" or other adversarial drivel? As though that makes your idiocy more sound? Ooh ooh, you wanna cite scientific evidence, how about you go drink some cleaner like your "I just don't think he is doing that bad a job" president recommended:




    Sorry, sorry, OF COURSE I got it completely wrong, it is not DRINK but, "Inject." :p


    Nicely stated. Probably could have gone further but you are being nice(actually, very nice.) Your thoughtfulness does you credit.
     
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  5. ravien_ff

    ravien_ff Rear Admiral

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    Why do conspiracy theorists always expect us to watch some 1-2 hour "documentary", while they can't even take the 5 minutes to look up some actual science?
     
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  6. Needleship

    Needleship Master of Custom Terrain

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    Please, no belittleling.
    - There's a man in high power right now, whose style I very much don't want subscribe to, who is very adept in that.
    Everytime he does that, a sad puppy gets kicked over a wall - Always remember, plz :)
    (I think it drives only more division. - Because once you start labelling people negatively, you get them all mad and geared up, ready to fight back - And whatever you might say afterwards could easily get blocked, or falsely understood - since people still think you say stuff from the campaign trail.

    So, if your goal is governance, or even 'just' to inform people, you might try to keep your communication as clear (and friendly, and threat-free) as possible.

    No need to antagonize people that you might depend on in the next election/crisis... or you meet at the grocer's. If you want to build a new barn, you likely can't do it alone.)


    Well, luckily it seems, large swathes of earth are past that medival mindset.
    Quite a few industrialized societies - like the USA - even have 'free speech' laws. :)

    Good stuff, it reduces things you have to worry about (or to 'suppress'), and frees you to do other stuff instead - Unlocking the full potential of a society's development.

    With such, access and spread of basic information is rather not the problem.
    (because, everybody can get richer/safer/healthier with basic knowledge - That's why there are even state-funded schools, they are an investment in future business. People that don't learn to question 'dear leader' are bad at innovation.)
    Regarded as critical is the spreading of 'trade secrets', instead.
    (=inustrial espionage of specialized recipes and 'how-to's'. - - Everybody knows what basic components a 'car' has. But to build it, it needs testing and tweaking... Unless you go in and take pictures of competitor's factory line. - That is what e.g. China got accused for. Copying. - Because they still have a very controlled society, far below their potential. 1.4 Billion people!).
    Edit: I finally realized the link was down, and then finally made the connection to your second post. :D
    - Youtube is a corporation. You can't force them to host stuff. :/ But if they arbitrarily throw away content, it will hurt their business.
    - File a complaint, or just upload the video again. Or find the prime source. There seemed to be a lot of newspaper people around (California? I'm no US citizen)
    - My guess the ban is because of the 'people on the streets' / 'lets roll' craziness at the end. Really didn't help the message, threatening violence and such.

    Edit2: A short google search gave this: https://www.the-sun.com/news/757417/youtube-slammed-removing-video-doctors-end-coronavirus-lockdown/ ... but they don't report the crazy bits. Lets the doctors look much better, IHMO ;)


    Don't have enough communication with conspiracy theorists for such a statement. - Do they 'always expect'? ;)
    I know, what you mean, but c'mon... how much people do you want to fit under that blanket?
    (Probably everybody can dig a bit, and find shorter, more concise stuff, for everything.)
    (I heard, that Fox News' 'main page commentary' is rather short...)
    - But if 'Occams Razor' is not a thing, then stuff can get very long..! :(


    --
    ... Struggled to watch the above video. - - One hour...!
    What made me do it, was @wrenchinator 's calmer response to my other post in the Covid thread, with - aggression? - frustration?, that wasn't at least directed against me. - So, open for reciprocity.
    ... And I really had the urge to answer to that, but still honor the plea to keep politics out of the thread...
    'OK, maybe a peek over the fence, just to see if that was a fluke!'


    - But was impressed how much -IHMO- interesting thoughts are in the video.
    (Still disagree a lot, see above.)
    And I don't want it to let it get dragged down by the cringe-inducing smugness of the main presenter or the craziness of his 'Twitter friends'!
    - Damn labels, they always keep coming back.


    ----

    (Edit: I'm bilnd. Video from starting post seems to be down, at least from that account. Adjusted response to wrenchinator .)
     
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    Last edited: May 5, 2020
  7. piddlefoot

    piddlefoot Rear Admiral

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    The funniest thing about this thread, is the video he tried to post as scientific got removed because of its blatant garbage it was sprouting.

    Likely got reported by a real scientist and removed.
    You know, as the US has cracked down on social media sites for printing false news and fake stories and influencing elections etc......

    I suppose the next scientific video will be one proving god yes ?

    I mean can it get any funnier.

    ''If you take a Malaria drug, you will see god, thus proving its real'' is kinda what Im expecting hahaha.

    You could alternatively inject some Petrol into your veins, it kills the virus also.

    Kinda like thousands of other deadly chemicals Man kind and Mr Dupont has created over the past century, kill the virus instantly, but a slight side effect is you die too, oops.....forgot to mention that bit ay..........what an amazingly clever President, to do that, not to his enemies, but his own people, FREEKEN LOL !

    Meanwhile, in a different room, Mr Trump is likely having a friendly chat with Mr Kim Oon Morooon in North Korea, chatting about how great the dictators control over his people are and oh how he could do so much more if the US was like that, not a hard thing to imagine after everything Trump has done.

    You, well, some of you dont see the crazy in that guy ?

    Time to put on my incredulous voice !
     
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  8. Bigfeet

    Bigfeet Captain

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    O you do me overly credit where it is not as such. O wait, it was an attempted kick below the belt with mockery? How sporty of you. Too bad you missed then i guess, like water on a duck. Considering the humiliating general tone in the answers, i don't see much of the respectfull manner of discussion that was carried in the banner in the past anymore. So be it. I'm not gonna lower myself to that level of expression, thank you.

    Now re : "disinfectant" in that CBS vid. I see Trump asking/suggesting if there is any way some sort of disinfectant substance can be used to combat the pathogen involved, and to aim the focus along with light & heat. Be it for those to interpret the word disinfectant automaticly with household cleaners, while it was never intended in that assosiation obviously, only to twist meanings of context and thus intended purpose. The word - incase it is still not clear - states its properties of effect as opposed to a fixed label of product. There are many substances that act as disinfectant in relation to what needs dis-infecting. :rolleyes: The manner of admission has it's own importance ofcourse.

    As a matter of fact, i came across this interesting video (now censored by youtube), that has a good example of the use of ClO2 (chlorine dioxide) in combination with demineralised water, produced through a perticular process. It is easy to produce if you can get your hands on the components. The tube channel of this bio-physicist has now seen the censor hammer aswell on simple vids how to create it for yourself unfortunately, although these can now be seen at his personal website. Anyway, this substance - by itself - is of poisonous nature, but in proper method of combination it has the ability to be used as a great "disinfectant" for drinkable water for example. As with anything proper proportions are key to harmonisations for the balance of health. I mean, an apple is healthy, but eat too much of it at once and the balance of that healthyness gets out of wack resulting not being healthy. But here's the video i was referring to, not for the individual that can't handle an attention span of an hour btw. He's not the most fluid of speakers due to a language barrier : https://www.bitchute.com/video/zn0v9kmyI5uY/#BitChute

    As expected the censorship of free speach is not respected by the 'in-the-pocket' platform that is youtube. There for i'll repost the involved presentation from a platform that isn't succumbed to censoring, so that others still can see and reflect through their own discernment capabilities.

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/DDXYNjk9b1ku/

    PS I believe this is the one you posted originally ? Just asking cuz i didn't see the one you posted, but according to your description i recognised it.
    Correct me if i'm wrong.

    ------------------------

    Edit : Regarding the matter of Trump's 'intelligence' , i expressed a note before on the covid thread of my suspicion many of his public appearances being an act, in order to keep the silent war in the realm of shroudedness so that tactics are not out in the open for the 'enemy' tactic to incalculate upon. Here's a possible example of code being used explained : https://projectspeak.net/the-covfef...d-are-afflicted-how-it-relates-to-coronavirus
     
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    Last edited: May 10, 2020
  9. piddlefoot

    piddlefoot Rear Admiral

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    How the f_____k would you have any clue whats so ever to how that should be interpreted.

    What a joke.

    You just literally asked us to all have faith in your explanation of that garbage, its blatantly obvious Trump had no clue about what he spoke of, and that the lady , the medical lady was in shock she was being asked such STUPID question, disinfectant and heat and light, I mean come on, trying to defend that and make up utterly STUPID excuses as to why he said the utterly stupid things he said, really just makes you look really brainwashed dude, to the pint of, this guy can do no wrong in your eyes, which says it all really.

    You are the last person on earth anyone will believe in relation to that ridiculous explanation......

    The Trump administration has been putting out propaganda explanations of which you have been a completely suckered in, totally complicit in his actions people like you are , in other words its people like you that allow people like him to constantly break your own laws, and express complete idiocy daily, lie daily, and generally look like an uneducated clown.

    Best not eat to many Apples dude, dont want to start a pandemic........yea thats how stupid that all was champ.

    If you truly believe that crap propaganda you just preached on this forum, I feel sorry for you, for not being capable of proper scientific scrutiny and the ability to make up your own mind based on scientific data, rather than just believe the crap your fed by your, really uneducated President.

    PS, and trying to say he acts dumb on purpose, is a JOKE, nothing is more important to Mr Trump than his EGO.
    Looking like an idiot does not improve his standing and make his Ego happy, its a detriment to be dumb, oops, OOOOPSSS !!!

    Wake up, if you cant see how stupid this guy is, are you saying you want me to post 100 odd videos of his idiotic mistakes caught on camera of things he has no clue about, from the US history to the history of the world he livs in and partially runs ?
    Seriously you want me to post all of his moron videos ?

    I mean we should bring evidence right ?
    Not just expect people to believe based on faith of our word.

    Lets see how much you can post to prove how smart this guy really is then and I will post all the moronic stuff he has done and we will see, because thats a simple matter of PUBLIC RECORD dude.

    Are you up for that challenge ?
    Or would that be to embarrassing ?
     
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    Last edited: May 10, 2020
  10. piddlefoot

    piddlefoot Rear Admiral

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    I will get you started because its such a funny topic at this stage, heres the first 40 odd to get the ball rolling, go on, try to explain all of these away too.......LOL !

    1,

    On Domestic Policy
    "I think if this country gets any kinder or gentler, it's literally going to cease to exist."
    Playboy, March 1990

    2
    On Immigration
    "We're rounding 'em up in a very humane way, in a very nice way. And they're going to be happy because they want to be legalized. And, by the way, I know it doesn't sound nice. But not everything is nice."

    60 Minutes, 27/0/15

    3
    On Syrian Refugees
    "What I won't do is take in two hundred thousand Syrians who could be ISIS... I have been watching this migration. And I see the people. I mean, they're men. They're mostly men, and they're strong men. These are physically young, strong men. They look like prime-time soldiers. Now it's probably not true, but where are the women?... So, you ask two things. Number one, why aren't they fighting for their country? And number two, I don't want these people coming over here."

    Face the Nation, 11/10/15

    4
    On Border Control
    "I will build a great, great wall on our southern border, and I will have Mexico pay for that wall. Mark my words."

    Campaign launch rally, 15/6/15

    5
    On September 11th
    "I think I could have stopped it because I have very tough illegal immigration policies, and people aren't coming into this country unless they're vetted and vetted properly."

    Hannity, 20/10/15


    6
    On Education
    "[Overseas] we build a school, we build a road, they blow up the school, we build another school, we build another road, they blow them up, we build again. In the meantime we can't get a fucking school in Brooklyn."

    Speech in Las Vegas, 28/4/11

    7
    On Helping Women
    "I will be phenomenal to the women. I mean, I want to help women."

    Face the Nation, 9/8/15

    *******************************IF YOU ARE FEMALE THIS ONE IS IMPORTANT TO YOU. *****************************************

    8
    On Abortion
    “Do you believe in punishment for abortion – yes or no – as a principle?”

    “The answer is there has to be some form of punishment.”

    “For the woman?”

    “Yeah, there has to be some form.”

    MSNBC, 30/3/16


    9
    On Gay Marriage
    "It's like in golf... A lot of people - I don't want this to sound trivial - but a lot of people are switching to these really long putters, very unattractive... it's weird. You see these great players with these really long putters, because they can't sink three-footers anymore. And, I hate it. I am a traditionalist. I have so many fabulous friends who happen to be gay, but I am a traditionalist."

    New York Times, 1/5/11

    10
    On Race
    "I have a great relationship with African Americans, as you possibly have heard. I just have great respect for them. And they like me. I like them."

    Anderson Cooper 360, 23/7/15


    11
    On Health Care
    "The U.S. cannot allow EBOLA-infected people back. People that go to far away places to help out are great - but must suffer the consequences!"

    Twitter, 2/9/14

    BUT APPARENTLY ITS OK FOR CORONA CASES AS LONG AS BUSINESS IS UP AND RUNNING AGAIN.......

    12
    On Global Warming
    "It's really cold outside, they are calling it a major freeze, weeks ahead of normal. Man, we could use a big fat dose of global warming!"

    Twitter, 19/10/15

    DISPLAYING HIS COMPLETE LACK OF SCIENTIFIC UNDERSTANDING, AGAIN.

    13
    On Gun Control
    "No matter what you do - guns, no guns - it doesn't matter. You have people that are mentally ill. And they're gonna come through the cracks. And they're going to do things that people will not even believe are possible."

    Meet the Press, 4/10/15

    JUST WTF.

    14
    On The Greatness Of America
    "Our country is in serious trouble. We don't have victories any more. We used to have victories but [now] we don't have them. When was the last time anybody saw us beating, let's say, China, in a trade deal? They kill us. I beat China all the time. All the time."

    Campaign launch rally, 15/6/15


    15
    On Mexico
    "They're sending people that have lots of problems, and they're bringing those problems with us. They're bringing drugs. They're bringing crime. They're rapists. And some, I assume, are good people."

    Campaign launch rally, 15/6/15


    16
    On Fighting Terrorism
    "When you see the other side chopping off heads, waterboarding doesn't sound very severe."

    This Week with George Stephanopoulos, 2/8/16


    17
    On Global Warming
    "The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive."

    Twitter, 6/10/12

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA sheesh this ones so stupid its just funny as a fart in an elevator, one your not in ! HAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA yea all China's fault lol........

    18
    On Running For President
    "Well, if I ever ran for office, I'd do better as a Democrat than as a Republican - and that's not because I'd be more liberal, because I'm conservative. But the working guy would elect me. He likes me. When I walk down the street, those cabbies start yelling out their windows."

    Playboy, March 1990

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    19
    On Political Correctness
    "I think the big problem this country has is being politically correct. I've been challenged by so many people and I don't, frankly, have time for total political correctness."

    Fox News Republican debate, 6/8/15


    20
    On Why People Would Vote For Him
    "To be blunt, people would vote for me. They just would. Why? Maybe because I'm so good looking."

    New York Times, 19/9/99

    21
    On Making America Great Again
    "The line of 'Make America great again,' the phrase, that was mine, I came up with it about a year ago, and I kept using it, and everybody's using it, they are all loving it. I don't know, I guess I should copyright it, maybe I have copyrighted it."

    MyFox New York, March 2015

    ("Let's Make America Great Again" was one of Ronald Reagan's most well-known campaign slogans)



    22
    On Hillary Clinton
    "If Hillary Clinton can't satisfy her husband what makes her think she can satisfy America?"

    Twitter, 16/4/15


    ATTACKING WOMEN YET AGAIN......


    23
    On Fighting Terrorism
    "If you look at Saddam Hussein, he killed terrorists. I'm not saying he was an angel, but this guy killed terrorists."

    The Big Idea with Donny Deutsch, 2006

    24
    On Jeb Bush
    "Jeb said, 'we were safe with my brother. We were safe.' Well, the World Trade Center just fell down! Now, am I trying to blame him? I'm not blaming anybody. But the World Trade Center came down. So when he said, we were safe, that's not safe."

    Fox News Sunday, 18/10/15


    25
    On Rand Paul
    "I never attacked him on his looks, and believe me, there's plenty of subject matter right there."

    CNN Republican debate, 16/9/15

    HAHAHA ATTACKS HIM FOR HIS LOOKS LOL

    26
    On Why He's The Right Candidate
    "I'm the most successful person ever to run for the presidency, by far. Nobody's ever been more successful than me. I'm the most successful person ever to run. Ross Perot isn't successful like me. Romney - I have a Gucci store that's worth more than Romney."

    Des Moines Register, 2/6/15

    MONEY AND EGO = Mr Trump.


    27
    On John McCain
    "[John McCain is]... not a war hero. He's a war hero - he's a war hero 'cause he was captured. I Like people that weren't captured, OK, I hate to tell you."

    Iowa Family Leadership Summit, 18/7/15


    JUST OMG THATS ONE OF YOUR OWN VETERANS........


    28
    On Arianna Huffington
    "[email protected] is unattractive both inside and out. I fully understand why her former husband left her for a man - he made a good decision."

    Twitter, 28/8/12

    ********************************************PAY ATTENTION WOMEN ************************************

    29
    On Pop Culture
    "My favourite part [of Pulp Fiction] is when Sam has his gun out in the diner and he tells the guy to tell his girlfriend to shut up. 'Tell that bitch to be cool. Say: Bitch be cool.' I love those lines."

    As quoted in TrumpNation: The Art of Being the Donald, 2005.



    30
    On Women In Hollywood
    "While @BetteMidler is an extremely unattractive woman, I refuse to say that because I always insist on being politically correct."

    Twitter, 28/10/12


    REFER TO 19 UP THE PAGE.........


    31
    On Muslims
    "Donald J. Trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on."

    7/12/15


    32
    On Television Shows
    "Just tried watching Modern Family - written by a moron, really boring. Writer has the mind of a very dumb and backward child. Sorry Danny!"

    Twitter, 13/6/13


    33
    On Sharing His Financial Success
    "I look very much forward to showing my financials, because they are huge."

    TIME, 14/4/11


    34
    On Shaking Hands
    "The concept of shaking hands is absolutely terrible, and statistically I've been proven right."

    Playboy, October 2004


    35
    On His Intelligence
    "Sorry losers and haters, but my IQ is one of the highest - and you all know it! Please don't feel so stupid or insecure, it's not your fault."

    Twitter, 9/5/13

    36
    On Self-Maintenance
    "I think Viagra is wonderful if you need it, if you have medical issues, if you've had surgery. I've just never needed it. Frankly, I wouldn't mind if there were an anti-Viagra, something with the opposite effect. I'm not bragging. I'm just lucky. I don't need it."

    Playboy, October 2004

    37
    On Romance
    "All of the women on The Apprentice flirted with me - consciously or unconsciously. That's to be expected."

    Trump: How To Get Rich, 2004

    38
    On Romance
    "Certain guys tell me they want women of substance, not beautiful models. It just means they can't get beautiful models."

    New York Times, 19/9/99

    39
    On Family
    "She does have a very nice figure... If [Ivanka] weren't my daughter, perhaps I'd be dating her."

    The View, 2006

    WTACTUALF ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

    40
    On Marriage
    "I would never buy Ivana any decent jewels or pictures. Why give her negotiable assets?"

    Vanity Fair, September 1990



    Lots more, heres a link, over 70 on this page alone, funny as that people believe this guy, when his lip move, LIES FOLLOW.....

    https://www.shortlist.com/news/most-ridiculous-trump-quotes-ever
     
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  11. Needleship

    Needleship Master of Custom Terrain

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    @Bigfeet:
    Checked out your ‚Cofefe‘ link.
    Benefit of doubt, and such. Wanting to learn about other's perception. Trying not to label people. Be nice. Maybe, I can-
    :eek:


    - You HAVE read all that...?
    - ...What -um- ...says your gut feeling-?


    Background questions, „doubting 101“.

    - They make tall claims. Even saying this themselves:
    (Point 6: Citing. -Emphasis added- „6. This sounds like the stuff of horror films, but to us, truth is not just stranger than fiction, it is the probable basis of all „fictional“ stories in the canon of mankind“)
    Reading as: „That sounds unbelievable? Then it has to be at least partially true!“
    … If anything is with a kernel of truth, what prevents others from making stuff up?

    - Such a claim would be fodder for any non-US-based news with an axe to grind. - But instead, it is tucked away there...?

    - Does a ‚debunking‘ article need to be structured like an advertisement?
    (Intro, start with ‚legit‘ stuff, build trust, then move on to the crazy. 'Yes-ladder' structure. Basic ad stuff.) https://www.phoneburner.com/blog/how-to-prime-prospects-to-say-yes/

    - If I say I have ‚reputable intel‘, would you believe me?
    ... And if I make a nice website, and state my dearest intentions? (I can put on my lab coat for you & post a pic of a molecule! https://xkcd.com/699/)

    - If only minimal sources are used - One isolated website citing another… and that is cited…- Isn‘t that similar to the children‘s game, where one whispers in the ear of the next? Until some crazy stuff is said at the end of the line?

    -----
    Apart from the site's info violating throughoutly all stuff I heard about biology and chemistry, and what I learned about society...
    (I started to refute that, but then- no, sorry, that is bottomless- and if above stuff isn‘t already sketchy, this is just lost time.)
    it jumps straight into Occam‘s blade, head first, with a bloody scream:

    „A president with a habit of tweeting deep into the night, doing a fat-fingered message. His press officer trying to shield him (without getting fired), and a salty Clinton that makes a snarky ironic comment.“

    vs.

    „A satanic group on a wild murder spree in the hundreds of thousands, consuming of human flesh and blood, child 'harvesting', for some super drug. Cofefe is the code word for those that know.“


    Hmm…. Yeah.
    Tough -choice...? :confused:
     
    #11
  12. Bigfeet

    Bigfeet Captain

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    @Needleship

    Yes, I have read all that. But this article did not came to my attention before i came to see the hidious reality around all this satanic stuff through many other sources going back couple of decades. Ever since 9/11 the dark stuff came more and more to the foreground and thus caught my attention throughout many related subjects. Geo-engineering, GMO's, Global warming agenda, transhumanism agenda, "Hidden Hand" testemonies, European Union, never ending wars through American 'policies', NWO, so called humanitarian organizations, Illuminati, protocols of zion, and more and more and more... connecting dots. On the other hand the more positive side study in to esotherics, gnostics, meditation, Tai Chi, Yoga, personal experiences, teachings via books and exercises, certain channelings, extra terrestrial interlinks (both benevolent and malevolent), and also more and more ... connecting dots.

    What does my gut feeling say ? Pretty high probability this is true imo, yeah. Lies in line with what is referred Pizza Gate.
    That world of code is a whole tough sandwich to get in to. But one thing's for sure, it is meant to keep critical info hidden from the public. That's the sole reason it exists. And what is in the public is a mere show for what goes on behind that proverbial curtain. Everything has been hijacked and is not what it seems from the surface. From the moment you or i was born and many of our forefathers back time.
    We are living in crucial times where many agenda's have intersected in a accellerated nexus of fruition. Timelines of probabilities are going to split and it is up to every individual wich polarity it is going to choose.

    Now i can understand why some would call me a total whackjob and other nasty labels. It all is grounded from wich perspective one's vision is oriented. Visions/beliefsystems based on definitions created from the power of thought, fueling to create emotions, and in turn to create manifestations, guided by one's knowledge of energy of heart.

    But i degress. I myself have long been on the fence regarding the role of Trump and the connection with Q ( https://qanon.pub/ ) in relation with all. Could be a very intricate psy-op on the one hand, yet i'm leaning more to the other at this moment. Synchronicity and other confirmations through certain research sources have lead me that way. But i'm more interested in what i can do as an individual personally as that lies within my responsability... first. That is where it ultimately starts, for every-body. Many regard Trump and Q as some kind of saviours, yet fail to see their own part to create that certain collective. That is a big part of their message to the public aswell & that sits very well with what needs to happen.

    @piddlefoot

    Please wipe the foam forming on your mouth there. There's no way i'm feeling engaged to have such a conversation with you in the way you seek to lash out. This is not a competition. You've made your point as to what your beliefs are stemming from. And for the record - again - i'm not american... bye now !
     
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  13. piddlefoot

    piddlefoot Rear Admiral

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    Well you keep using this guy in stupid debates mate, which leaves us to question his credibility, you keep bringing up stupid things, like excuses for his utterly stupid remarks over injecting disinfectant into ones veins and heat and light, so his credibility is in question when you do that, so do have a good look at the stupid things your president says in public, and comprehend that if you vote for such an uneducated man, you saying your willing to accept his lies.

    Now if this same man decided to take all of your guns off you in teh USA, how much would you support him then ?
    No he will never do that because the gun mob over there are his largest donors, but the point is your supporting a man, who is closer to a dictator than any in democratic history.
    And you are blind enough to allow him to erode your freedoms and rights, and you believe the crap he spews out, which can be clearly shown to be a lie, not one single day has passed where he has done a TV interview or speech and he has not been caught telling lies.

    You allow people like that to take control of everything, change things to give himself an advantage in the next election, like electoral borders , and high court judges that are blatantly bias and do not hold up the letter of the law but rather do as they are instructed by a government, when the day does come, that a person like this, that you vote for, actually does go and take all of your guns of you, dont say we didnt tell you so....

    You can sit there in ignorance and say '' oh that will never happen in the USA'', but you know thats precisely what people were saying before WW2 in Germany, we have chacks and balances in the system to prevent such problems, so when you get a president like Mr Trump who starts changing laws and replacing judges with politically motivated judges, you literally just took the first step towards such a disaster.
    Keep him in power at your own risk, is you in the USA that will cop such grief first if thing like that end up happening.

    Your ''bill of rights'' is only as strong as the president who runs your country, and the proof for that is in whats happened under presidential powers with Mr Trump, he has abused it more than any president in history, even Nixon, , it literally gives him the power to almost do anything, and if he brought the military in to disarm the nation, nothing you can do to stop it, literally nothing but fight and die, cos your military is shock and awe when it comes to firepower, no civilian resistance will cut it against such a force.

    You should think about such things for your childrens futures sake.

    Or you can shrug away from any debate because the questions being asked are just to hard, I get it, had many do that in the past, its understandable, Mr Trump is pretty incredibly arrogant and extremely hard to defend with any real evidence........I get it........
     
    #13
  14. ravien_ff

    ravien_ff Rear Admiral

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    Having an understanding of how the universe works, even as a layman, helps vaccinate you against bull. Just because somebody says something is true or they claim a study says so and so, doesn't make it true.

    If you need to link a hour+ video to "prove" your point, then you've already failed. If you can't sum up your claim and argument in a few minutes in a way that a layperson can understand, then you probably don't understand the topic you're talking about very well. Even incredibly complex things like quantum mechanics or the Human immune system can be roughly summed up in a few minutes. Heck there's 10-20 minute videos on YouTube that explain both rather well, in language a layperson can understand, backed up by multiple citations for those who wish to dig deeper.
    And those videos aren't trying to sell you something.

    If I can learn how the Human immune system works, what gravitational waves are, or Einstein's theory of relativity in a 5-20 minute video, why does it take a 45-120 minute video to explain some conspiracy by a global cabal of elites led by lizardmen? Can't you sum it up so we don't have to waste our time?

    I'll answer that: no. You can't sum it up, because you don't understand it yourself. And the reason you don't understand it enough to summarize it is because it doesn't make -any- sense.
     
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  15. piddlefoot

    piddlefoot Rear Admiral

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    The best summing up in history, is in science.

    E=Mc²

    Einstein was a legend.

    But his works, the equations around what makes up E=Mc² if you ever read his works, is incredibly fascinating that he could have such incredibly accurate insight into something no one understood at the time.

    Every single experiment we have ever performed, including at CERN, outright prove E=Mc² to be true.

    COVID19, rounded down from - COVID-19 is a disease caused by a new strain of coronavirus. 'CO' stands for corona, 'VI' for virus, and 'D' for disease. Formerly, this disease was referred to as '2019 novel coronavirus' or '2019-nCoV.'




    And apparently injecting poison into ones veins fixes it ! LOL !

    Said no one ever.....oh wait, the President said it....oops........

    Wait, apparently injecting Malaria drugs fix it !

    Said no one ever....oh wait, the President said it........OOPS......

    But only the Malaria drugs that Mr Tumps company makes......small detail but amusing one.

    But really the guys funniest rambling are about the history of America, and the civil war, I mean this president actually asked, why did we have to have a civil war....

    Ask yourself, have you ever heard anyone who is not under 10 years old, ask that question, pretty incredible.

    To round it down, the president is Incompetent and Unstable.

    Thats I and U ! For short LOL !

    IU Trump !

    Not as sexy an equation as E=Mc² I have to admit !

    I actually wonder if Mr Trump isnt suffering from Alzheimer's because alot of his actions fit the picture.

    The dude doesnt seem capable of holding a straight thought, he is incapable of holding his tongue and cant help but ramble lies out, constantly, his ego constantly gets the better of him, his entire career is built on the back of lies and making crap up, no other job Trumps ever had coems with the scrutiny of the one he does now, he HATES being scrutinized, gets caught out in lies all the time, ramble garbage to try and talk his way out, blames everyone else for everything, apparently its Obamas fault the US didnt have Covid 19 test kits, do you know how utterly DUMB that statement really is ?
    Covid was not around in Obamas term, there was no test for corona19 then, even if there was it would be a 99%
    chance its outdated and wouldnt work, Trumps been in power for four years and has literally done nothing and now wants to blame Obama for the health care system he is dismantling, pretty funny, well if your not a US citizen its funny anyway.

    Not one single person in that White House has anyway to control what Trump says, his arrogance knows no bounds.
    They cant even stop him from tweeting the most stupendous statements in Presidential history.
    They cant stop the American President, from making himself look like a spoiled 7 year old brat who is constantly bullying his own citizens with personal attacks because of criticism of his political decisions, you know, the one thing we all cherish in a democracy......
     
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  16. Needleship

    Needleship Master of Custom Terrain

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    The conspiracy ideas don't explain how their stuff works, on any scale - But it seems they don't need to, and it still seems to enough to enable their spread.
    - Else any kind of 'doubting' would have an impact, even without any knowledge on the topic.
    It seems it's all about getting you into the mood, and then stating some stuff to give you cues, and off you go.
    No matter if it holds up on scrutiny, or better, testing - - it's all feels.


    So... - Faith?


    ... That sounds really lonely and depressing. :(
    Sorry. I think I am a monotheist.
    (with an entity of the benevolent sort. - It's just more fun, and even if I might be wrong - quite comforting.)
    = No 'final epic battle between good and evil'.
    Because that makes no sense at all, if you define that as an all-powerful, all-knowing, transcedental, friendly entity. Should such a god bash his/her/whatever's own creation? That would be as sensible as smashing your mirror, and very simple-minded- Not all-knowing, nor all-powerful... Getting offended by yourself!
     
    #16
  17. Bigfeet

    Bigfeet Captain

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    I beg to differ. Many tangeble proofs are being muffled, ignored, misrepresented, twisted, forgotten in time. People get life threaths to themselves and their families. When that doesn't work related people suddenly die in mystery or 'suicides'. Depends on the spread in public opinion and the importance of the matter they bring. Also the type of conspiracy ofcours. Then there's controlled opposition wich sole job is to create fake conspiracies to muddy the waters. Stands to divide & conquer tactics to take hold. Then there's the miriade responses of the masses that often act as followers only to attest some form of gullability reflecting on the original concept, to be judged by critics as a form of proof for the falacy of that concept often representing it with ridicule. Snowball effects in action keeping rolling on the slope of time.
    The term conspiracy theory is apparantly created for that very purpose according to "OUT OF SHADOWS OFFICIAL" tube vid.
    The only way for any individual to find out is to dip their toes in the matter themselves. Reflect all that comes across ones findings and filter it on ones own ability of discernment. A quality that can grow or diminish like anything else, depending on ones experiences.
    There are a few pro journalistic researchers that i deem very credible in their work. They provide alot of work done and links to sources. Then still it has to go through your own filter, as is expected. Belief is a mechanism, everyone has it and uses it. A mechanism of process to get results of knowing. Blind belief is when it stays in the realm of belief and lacks the flow towards results, dorment. This can either be rejuvinated by self deception or explored, because we all create our own reality through our perception.

    Favourite quote i keep in mind : "The lie is different on every level" ~Richard Hoagland~



    Well, let me put it like this. Seeing or becoming aware of more doesn't go in 1 direction. Negative and positive. Its never this OR that, it's allways this AND that. ;)

    That is an understandable point of view. But for me it lies a bit more complicated then that. In this 3D/3d (3rd dimensional/3rd densinal) realm the rules or blueprint we call the game of life duality is its driving principle. There will never be an 'ultimate' winner, otherwise there would be no 'free will' for its players, wich is one of its basic laws, and the game would end. Duality in every-thing AND the balance in between. It all depends on our ability of perception. Now i could right a huge lithany of my own here, but that wouldn't be appropriate for this allready derailed thread.

    Instead i could point you towards a free online book, if that is of interest to you. No biblethumper here, lol. But that is the best i can offer.
    It served me of great insights in a easely digestable manner. Many of it is in Q&A style. Do with it as you deem fit.
    https://zingdad.com/publications/books/the-ascension-papers-book-1

    Ofcours i'm now expecting worship and daily footbaths accompanied with parfumed pedicures ! :D:eek:;)

    --------------------

    @ravien_ff : I don't feel obligated to prove anything to anyone, i'm merely stating a perspective and or reflecting one that i deem relative. I'm not here to waste your time, that lies completely in your hands. If you don't want to watch vids posted in a longer timeframe, then i'll accept your decision.
    @piddlefoot : yeah ... never thought i'd be needing it, but i've put you on ignore. I've had it tbh, so don't bother .
    @wrenchinator : Sorry for derailing the thread this much.
     
    #17
  18. ravien_ff

    ravien_ff Rear Admiral

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    The burden of proof is on those making the claim. Otherwise I have a pink invisible unicorn living in my basement.
     
    #18
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  19. Needleship

    Needleship Master of Custom Terrain

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    Basic tenet of science. Took humanity out of the dark ages, and gave us technology. Masterfully in doubting.
    Good stuff.
    - And helps faith to gets its act straight. So that e.g. (most) christians and hindus both can agree that the world is a spherical space rock. And then build rockets together.

    ... But - Some people could really really want, that there are "unicorns"...
    - And would gladly accept your basement stable - And even that sentence as proof. "So happy for you".
    This could be a possibility in this case? You can't argue fact-based with people if they are in such a 'non-factual' world view.
    Monthy Python's Life of Brian. Best gift they could make to a religion: (Hermit scene.)


    Welll... - I'm already doing that, right here, with you, and the first link you offered as an example? - I got my feet wet.
    - Why should I do all the work, in the quagmire, if there's an initiated right here? ;)

    ---
    ... On the Covfefe website, there seemed to be an underlying pattern in the way the information is structured:
    - Readers are first primed to an emotion (e.g. 'world is shady, but we offer Truth').
    - Then any faint association is taken that fits to that 'starting emotion', and not in the slightest way checked for any other possible interpretation.
    But that is vital if you want to convince any 'doubters', not to just talk to 'believers'.

    The problem is, that the arguments presented there are so... incredibly... weak.
    Science works by adding multiple layers of doubt onto each other. You only gain a tiny insight after that, but it is likely really stable.
    'Did I do my experiment without interference? Even by myself?' 'Can I describe that shorter?' 'Can I repeat what happened?' 'Can others do?' - It's basically taking on all possible counterarguments before they are even stated.
    ... That gives a very solid, 'strong' result. So strong, that some of that stuff -after centuries of testing by different people- , is near-untouchable.

    The less doubt the Covfefe-Website adresses, the weaker it gets.

    E.g. take that tall "chemical was laced with Covid" claim, and then a (really long, check the link in their pic) list of producers. One happened to be in Wuhan.

    It is similar of taking a phone book from a random city, circling the cover, and then the number of a book store in that city.- Because, 'Book'. - - Even for 'just connecting dots', that is really stretching the red yarn into another room.

    And it doesn't help to say: "Well, that's all I got. My information is actively supressed." - That reminds me too much of 'the dog ate my homework'. - Possible, yes. Likely? - No.
    Could it be, that the emotion generates the data here, not the other way round?


    ...Would be similar, - to faith.


    (If that is too 'structured' or 'boxed in', then maybe - Mysticism, occultism?
    - Definitively not science.)
    If that 'Covfefe' website is common style, you will have a hard time explaining stuff to anybody, possibly even to the 'seekers'.

    And you likely already have to have a 'base emotion' of a shady world, to take some stuff as true.
    And the more you immerse yourself into said emotion ... "dipping your toes in the matter"- , the 'truer' will ring to you even the -absolutely weak- claims, as long they fit to the emotion. And, if using those claims as example, the more likely others will call you bonkers. :(


    In the old show 'X-Files', Mulder had a poster on his wall. Grainy pic of an ufo, with the caption "I want to believe"...?

    All this took far too much time to write up. Will be probably the last one. But thank you for the foot bath and the polite tone. :) - I clearly disagree.
     
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  20. piddlefoot

    piddlefoot Rear Admiral

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    Yea but when you start talking about ''satanic'' stuff like its a real cause for anything, its obvious to everyone else you have lost touch with reality.

    You cant have proper scientific debates with such religious folk unfortunately there entire universe is built on faith not fact.
    This is why they believe so easily what an idiot president says without any question or thinking for themselves and then defend the complete moronic actions of the president, an incredible lack of self education cause from, most of the time nothing more than laziness.
    Would rather read religious gibblegarb than scientific reports and experiments.

    Using satan or satanic as an excuse in any debate is literally the worst possible way to debate anything.

    You might as well say a Unicorn caused it all.

    Studies have been done about this, and when people bring Satan into any debate, they effectively have just brought religion into the debate, which they had then better be ready to watch be criticized, afterall, thats what debates are, critical points of each others position in which opposing arguments are put forward and which usually ends with a vote. When its formal.
    Like in a Parliament or a club like Toastmasters.


    So read and learn about teh studies done on scientists / atheists and Religious folk, and this directly links to why debating them is a waste of time.


    Of course, there are examples of extremely intelligent individuals with strong religious convictions. But various studies have found that, on average, belief in God is associated with lower scores on IQ tests. “It is well established that religiosity correlates inversely with intelligence,” note Richard Daws and Adam Hampshire at Imperial College London, in a new paper published in Frontiers in Psychology, which seeks to explore why.

    It’s a question with some urgency – the proportion of people with a religious belief is growing: by 2050, if current trends continue, people who say they are not religious will make up only 13 per cent of the global population. Based on the low-IQ-religiosity link, it could be argued that humanity is on course to become collectively less smart.


    One suggestion is that perhaps religious people tend to rely more on intuition. So, rather than having impaired general intelligence, they might be comparatively poor only on tasks in which intuition and logic come into conflict – and this might explain the lower overall IQ test results.

    To investigate, Daws and Hampshire surveyed more than 63,000 people online, and had them complete a 30-minute set of 12 cognitive tasks that measured planning, reasoning, attention and working memory. The participants also indicated whether they were religious, agnostic or atheist.

    As predicted, the atheists performed better overall than the religious participants, even after controlling for demographic factors like age and education. Agnostics tended to place between atheists and believers on all tasks. In fact, strength of religious conviction correlated with poorer cognitive performance. However, while the religious respondents performed worse overall on tasks that required reasoning, there were only very small differences in working memory.

    https://digest.bps.org.uk/2018/01/2...e-really-less-smart-on-average-than-atheists/



    This explains HOW Mr Trump even got into power if you look closer.
    Feeble minded people, to easily influenced by social media, a thing Trump exploited more than anyone in Presidential history.....And he preyed on the lower IQ of the masses.......And look where he is now, well played.

    Do keep in mind, I did not bring religious overtones into this Thread, Mr Bigfeet did when he decided to use Satan to blame for things in a way where we should not ever question the word or what, god or satan, make your mind up ay....

    We have gone from discussing Covid19 on a scientific level, to utterly childish debate about satanic reasons and OMG, get a grip on reality already, how have you survived this long. ? !


    You cant have any proper debate about Covid19 without science, unless you just want to talk pure fantasy.
     
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    Last edited: May 12, 2020

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